Sunday, June 9, 2019
Performance Measurement in a Post Merger Integration Process Essay
Performance Measurement in a Post conjugation Integration Process - Essay ExampleThe objective of any amalgamation is to increase the value of the first step which means the there is always an objective that dishs the social club to come up with such a strategy to merger with another company. This is mostly seen as a long term strategy culminating from inside explore in the market as there is not firm which would like to lose its identity in the market as a result of the merger. (ndrade 2001, p. 106 Ronald and Suzanne 2000, p. 5)In the recent past, there have been increasing interest on the issue of mergers. Many people have tried to look at the doing of those mergers in the face of looking who are the real winners and who are the real losers of merger. There have been legion(predicate) studies which have been looking closely into the issue of exit of the mergers and acquisitions. The outcome of these two processes has been evaluated on many grounds from economic, communicati on, and other performance standards. (Caves 1999, p. 4 Lipin 2000, p.4)Once we realize that the objective of any merger is to increase the value of the enterprise in the market in order to create a formidable force the can compete effectively with others in the market, it will be palmy for us to analyse then how does a merger affect the operation of each firms after they merge. This paper will concentrate on assessing the post merger effects on trust building performance and communication in the new enterprise. It will review various literature and findings that have come from many researches. (Ghosh 2001, p. 13)Outcome of mergersMany studies that have conducted research on mergers and acquisition have basically centred on some of the interesting characteristics of the mergers. They have been able to categorize the effect of merge on three broad classes. The first class consist of measureing performance after a merger based on share price. The abet one has categories it on profita bility while the class takes in many studied which have utilise other effect of merger supremacy. (Paul 2002, p. 49)As we mentioned in the beginning the aim of any merger is to ensure that there is success of a business. This success should not only be measured in term of grouchy success but in like manner in the degree of integration the two firms. In this regard cultural integration is one of the most important aspects that help the merger to succeed. Whether a merger can be considered a success based on the financial implication depends on many factors including the benchmark that is used to evaluate the merger. Many studies have concentrated on the share price of the firm pre and post merger as a measure of success in themes. This is often based on the confidence the investors will have on the merger. In this regard, the revenue of the firm is used as bench mark for evaluating the success of the firm since the dynamic trend in the share price of a firm will depend on the re venue collection of the firm. (Sitkin 1996, p. 17 Kaplan 2000, p. 243) base on the financial performance of the mergers, studies that have been carried out shows that 82% of all mergers evaluated have shown success in the share price and economic performance. However it has also been shown that more that 50% of all mergers do not meet the expectations of the investors with majority of them failing to attain the objectives of the new merger. Once a merger is planned, there
Saturday, June 8, 2019
Victimsââ¬â¢ Rights and Vengeance Essay Example for Free
Victims Rights and Vengeance EssayI believe that current state of victims right in America is better than it has been in the past thirty years. Thirty years ago, victims had few legal rights to be informed, present and heard within the shepherds crook justice system. Victims did not feed to be notified of court proceedings or of the arrest or release of the defendant, they had no right to attend the trial or other proceedings, and they had no right to run a statement to the court at sentencing or at other hearings. Moreover, victim assistance programs were virtu completelyy non-existent. Today, every state has an extensive body of staple fiber rights and protections for victims of crime within its statutory code. Victims rights statutes have significantly influenced the manner in which victims are treated within the federal, state, and local criminal justice systems.2004 Crime Victims Rights displaceI believe that the 2004 Crimes Victims Rights Act has been effective to som e extent. The CRVA helps victims assert and encourage enforcement of victims rights. It promotes compliance with victims rights laws. Funds grant programs and other activities to implement provisions. Provides an enforcement mechanism for rights delineated in the Act. The CRVA may legitimately consider to go too far and give victims undue rights at the expense of a fair trial. For instance, it allows them to be heard at any proceedings related to the offence, regardless as to whether or not their input is relevant or appropriate. It is based on a very archaic view of crime and criminal procedure it assumes that all victims are innocent people attacked by dangerous criminals. However, a lot of crime victims dont fitthat category- many an(prenominal) crimes have no clear victim, some victims are large corporations, and in a very large percentage of cases, the victims are criminals themselves. This amendment isnt necessarily appropriate for all cases and shouldnt be so. VengeancePers onally I do believe that vengeance does fix anything. Punishment should be a form of vengeance but a form of deterrence, detainment, and rehabilitation of the offender so that he or she will not cause any more harm to others. Vengeance does not select the people that have been lost back. Fixing the issues can prevent more casualties from happening. The American tough on crime stance taken by take officials from across the political spectrum has not halted the resurgence of crime in the last few years, nor has it helped prevent ex-inmates from once again ending up behind bars. The criminal justice system needs to spend more money in the parole, probation, and rehabilitation structure because clearly punishment alone isnt working. Survivors Network of those ill-treated by Priests (SNAP)I agree with the actions of Survivors Network of those Abused by Priests because it is an organization that specializes in helping women and men wounded by religious authority figures much(prenomina l) as priests, ministers, bishops, deacons, nuns and others. Before SNAP many sexual do byd cases were not reported or taken to court. The SNAP organization helps the victims of a sexual abuse crime by a religious authority get the information, support, and psychological help that they need. Its claims have been validated, and a few though hardly all of its recommendations have been implemented by the church hierarchy. SNAPs advocacy on the Catholic scandal also helped push the reality of sexual abuse into the commonplace consciousness to the point that victims can regularly win in courts and get a hearing in the media, and they are much more likely to contract forward to tell their stories, whether they were abused by clergy or by athletic coaches or Boy Scout leaders.ReferencesCrime Victims Rights Acthttp//www.justice.gov/usao/eousa/vr/crime_victims.html Survivors Network of those Abused by Priests http//www.snapnetwork.org/resources Crime Victims Rights http//www.ovc.gov/right s/legislation.html Crime, Punishment and Vengeance in the Age of Mass Imprisonment http//www.alternet.org/story/50464/crime,_punishment_and_vengeance_in_the_age_of_mass_imprisonment
Friday, June 7, 2019
Menââ¬â¢s Pride Essay Example for Free
Mens Pride EssayIn a story or a work of fiction, the characters are remembered by beliefs and personalities solo they possess. These personality and belief make them nominate emerge from all the early(a) characters in the story. They do non declare to be the lead protagonist or the main antagonist rather, their belief or trait makes them the best in the eyes of some readers. In the case of two coarseest works of fiction, epic poem of Gilgamesh and Othello, it is the pride of the character and their belief in themselves that makes them stand out from the others. It is the pride and later the ability to set it aside and condone for their deed.In the Epic of Gilgamesh, Gilgamesh, the great king stood out because he was the proudest of the proud. His belief in himself caused most of the misfortune that took place in the story. Only in the closedown did he realize his mistakes. The like may be said on Othello in the play that Shakespeare wrote. He was also proud, and this pride has caused as much misfortune in the story as did the trait of Gilgamesh. This also made him stand out from among the other characters. The Mighty Gilgamesh The Epic of Gilgamesh is an epic that originated in Iraq. It is a Sumerian legend about a great King, who is like a God.He has a strength that cannot be equaled. He is also as powerful as their gods wherein neither man nor animate being can flog him. As such, the gods decided to create another being that can equal him. When Gilgamesh met this being, whom the gods named, Enkidu, Gilgamesh immediately liked him. They easily became friends despite the initial computer programme of the gods to see Enkidu kill Gilgamesh. Their bond was instantaneous. They started doing a lot of adventures to dumbfoundher, even those that are forbidden and may offend gods (Hooker). Unfortunately, in one of their adventures a god was anger and as punishment for this, Enkidu died.After Enkidus death Gilgamesh was almost out of his mind and di d more dim-witted decisions that caused misfortunes. However, despite what he saw, he did not apologize but rather remained proud. Only after all his adventures did he come to his knees and realized his mistakes (Hooker). From this short synopsis of the epic, it may be seen that at the very beginning, Gilgamesh already showed his pride and belief in his self. He was aware of his great power and the gift of strength that destiny has gifted upon him. The king of Uruk knew that none of his subjects can defeat him or defy him.As such, he lived by this knowledge and used it to his advantage (Epic of Gilgamesh). He was a proud and tyrannical king and he stood out because of this. Even though his arrogant actions caused the death of his best friend Enkidu, this did not erase the fact that he was a memorable character because of it. He was much known than Enkidu not only because he carried the namesake of the epics title, but also because he went against the connection. He did not become w hat other kinds are. He was cruel to his subjects. He was almost an antagonist rather than the lead protagonist due to his pride.He made the story move by not conformist to the peoples expectations (Epic of Gilgamesh). However, despite the seemingly terrible character of Gilgamesh he should also be commended for being proud of himself. It should be noted that to stand up and remain proud despite other peoples constant prodding to become nicer is a hard task especially for a king. Even the gods were urging him to become kinder to his subjects but he never gave in. Also, it should be noted that his pride is his strength. Because of it, he was able to overcome other difficult tasks that salvage his kingdom.Had he not been that arrogant, he would not have risked his life for the tasks that he was assigned to and he would not have been able to save his people. Furthermore, he would have committed suicide as a sign of apology for his actions. Thus, with this, the non-conformity and the t rait of Gilgamesh made him a character that is very memorable. The Proud Othello Shakespeares Othello is about the tie up Othello, whose life suddenly made a turn because of the envy of one of the other characters. The great Othello was promoted in his job and his first action was to appoint an assistant.Iago, who was expecting to get the job, was not chosen. Instead Cassio became Othellos lieutenant. In his fury, Iago sought revenge against Othello and Cassio (Shakespeare). In place to have his revenge realized, Iago weaved lies in the lives of both Cassio and Othello, and even in the lives of other characters involved with the two. This twisted the story to the point that this not only caused Othello and Cassios death, but as well as other people whose lives were connected to them. nearly of the people, including Othello, believed the lies that Iago told them.By the end of the story, Othello could no longer contain his guilt and killed himself and claimed responsibility (Shakes peare). From this short synopsis it may be derived that Othellos life had been simple in the beginning. It was only made complex by the lies that Iago weaved in order to realize his revenge. Despite the fact that Iagos characteristics may actually make him stand out, Othello unbosom is the most memorable character. As in the case of the Epic of Gilgamesh, Othello stood out because of his pride and belief in himself. Being a moor, many would have contradicted his promotion.The society may dislike the fact that a man foreign of nature should not lead the army of Italy. However, because of Othellos pride and confiedence, he proved himself suited of the title (Black). To further prove that he was not like anyone else, an instance in the story told that most men try to use potions in order to attract the beautiful Desdemona. Desdemonas father even believed that Othello did the same when he learned that Othello was sleeping with his daughter. But then, because of Othellos pride and self -belief, he went against the societys expectations. He was able to lure Desdemona without potions or magic (Shakespeare).Despite the seeming good results of Othellos assumption though, it should not be neglected that the same arrogance killed Desdemona at the end of the story. The inability to accept the truth caused him to kill her. This may be considered saddening as it was not entirely his fault. However, he was still the one who smothered her with the pillow (Shakespeare). Othellos pride and belief in himself made him stand out from the meeting. He did not conform to the expectations that as a foreigner he cannot be a good soldier to their country. He also proved that he can get the woman he admires with sheer manliness and not through potions or magic.Even the fact that he got himself into trouble because of his pride made his character that is not like any other. He defied societys expectations especially when he took his life at the end of the play. This was an act of remo rse for rebelling against the expectations that he did not want to apologize for. He did not conform because it would have meant hurting his enormous ego. Conclusion From the given information, it may be concluded that the two characters in the two given pieces of literature, Epic of Gilgamesh and Othello, are characters that stood out from the crowd because of their pride and self-belief.Because of being proud, they could not afford to follow what other believed them to follow. They had to show their ability to decide for their own even though it may mean misfortune. They stood out because they went past the peoples expectations and proved themselves better than any other man. They had to act according to their will because of their pride which took great strength. More importantly, in the end of their tales, they showed remorse by killing themselves rather than apologizing which the society expects from them.Works CitedBlack, Edward. 2009. Oedipus and Othello Pride and the Tragic Hero. Lone Star College. 30 April 2009 http//northharris. lonestar. edu/30938/ . Epic of Gilgamesh. 2009. Mythmanhelp. 30 April 2009 http//mythmanhelp. tripod. com/id9. hypertext mark-up language . Hooker, Richard. 1999. Gilgamesh. World Civilizations. 30 April 2009 http//www. wsu. edu/dee/MESO/GILG. HTM . Shakespeare, William. 2003. Othello. shakespeare-literature. com. 30 April 2009 http//www. shakespeare-literature. com/Othello/0. html .
Thursday, June 6, 2019
Development and Diversity Essay Example for Free
Development and Diversity EssayWhen a churl is conceived they begin to develop in the mother whom and shroud to develop until adulthood. Today we look at these developments and find new meanss to teach children that all develop at different rates. Through step up history child development was ignored and little attention was paid to the advantages in their early abilities such as language usage, and physical growth that occurs during childhood and adolescence. Through pop the age there has been many people have come up with theories that support the growth of the development of children. I will talk about one of these theories here. B. F. Skinner, who carried out experimental work mainly in comparative psychology from the 1930s to the 1950s, but remained demeanourisms best kn stimulate theorist and exponent virtually until his death in 1990, developed a distinct kind of behaviorist philosophy, which came to be called radical behaviorism. He also claimed to have found a new version of psychological science, which he called behavior analysis or the experimental analysis of behavior (Richard Culatta) The behaviorist theory is a worldview that operates on a principle of stimulus-response. in all behavior caused by external stimuli all behavior fire be explained without the need to consider internal mental states or consciousness. Originators and important contributors of this theory be bath B. Watson, Ivan Pavlov, B. F. Skinner. The behaviorist theory is based off of positive and negative feedback to students in a classroom. It is a mode to train the students in learning the correct way so they washbowl keep moving onto the level of their education. An example can be a mouse in a cage that is really thirsty. comfortably the mouse will do and punish anything to get out of that cage to get something to drink but when it finds the feeding bottle and see that all it has to do is push the little tab on the end to get some water the mouse is satisfied. Th e same go for students and children. Children will fight tooth and nail to try and get out of anything that they do not like but if they see a reward at the end they will stay with it to get the reward. This keeps them pore and controlled at the same time. There are three main contributors to this theory John B.Watson, Ivan Pavlov, B. F. Skinner. These three have all contributed to this theory in one way or another.John B. Watson conducted research on animals, children, and advertising to further the theory. Ivan Pavlov conducted research on temperament of children, conditioning and involuntary reflex actions. Finally B. F. Skinner invented his own philosophy called radical behaviorism. All of these men have helped to improve on the theory to help us understand childrens learn and development repair so we can teach them in better ways.Education is what survives when what has been learned has been forgotten (B. F. Skinner) The theory of behaviorism can be used in a classroom settin g in many ways. It is the way that it is used that will square off if it works for the teacher and the student or hurts the teacher and the student. Giving children goals at an early age to accomplish tasks in the classroom can be a really good thing. Children always want a reward for the things they do.They are taught that at a very early age with their parents when doing thing like picking up their rooms and getting a reward for that at home. swell up that carries into the classroom setting also. To reward students is giving them very positive feedback on their work many teachers use the star system. A large chart on the wall with all the students names and stars for the good work they have done. This devotes students a little push to do their best because they want those stars so they can be proud or even get a reward for the close to stars.This is a great idea in most cases but teachers need to be careful with this also because it can backfire on them. If you have a student that is a slower learner and does not stick stars like the others this can hurt that student and their learning. Yes there has be negative feedback with positive feedback but if all the child gets is negative feedback it can lead to them incisively giving up and we do not want that. So we have to walk a fine line when it comes to using different techniques in the classroom.All students are different and learn different so we have to work around that so all of our students receive the same education as the other. You can use activities in your classroom that go on with behaviorism and that will benefit your students in many ways. For example take ten sentences that go along with your lesson plan. Say you are teaching about animals in your class this week you can make up ten sentences and leave one word out of each sentence. Then you would list the missing words out of order and have the children fill in the blanks with the words that are off to the side. You can give rewards for t heir work to stimulate them in doing their best by giving a sticker for each one they get correct. This is a good way to do it because you have a really good chance of getting at least one sticker and all are happy but most of the kids will do well because they are going to try for more than just one.There are many different theories in education that can help a teacher in the classroom. These all work to give the student a better learning experience. It is the way you use them that will determine if they work or not for you and your students. With behaviorism you need to give positive and negative feedback to your student it is that you have to walk a fine line so you do not discourage your students from learning but make them want to be the best student they can be.
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
Old And New Testament Views On Social Justice Religion Essay
venerable And New will Views On Social Justice Religion EssayChristians regard the Bible as a uniquely important source for piece life on matters of belief and practice. For human beings to live a life that is meaningful and dignified, they have to be in a just and fair society that looks up to the need of otherwises. For this to happen justness has to be emphasized, it has to be the driving force.In the Bible, God clearly imposed kindly precaution upon his people especially the poor and the marginalized. In Bible, numerous passages such as in 1 John 3 17 and James 314-17 draw peoples attention towards neighborly concern and mixer umpire.DEFINITION OF SOCIAL JUSTICE.Defining companionable justice, Dr Paul Kengor said, Historically, social justice has meant different things to different people, and so equally today(Online). This line actually means that social justice is a just a branch of justice that accommodates all forms of justice, it being soda pop justice, economi c justice distributive justice, rectificatory justice and so forth. We can in this paper in that locationfore, say that biblical justice entirely consists of social justice because there atomic number 18 many chapters like Matthew 1823-35 it talks about penal fairness that needs punishment by the book but lacks mercy is non the kind of justice desired by God. Also in Matt 201-16 the summary on social justice is an economy of care for the crude good with social sustainability, healing, and transformation. marshall in his book said, There is huge amount data to deal with. There are hundreds of texts in the Old and New Testament, which speaks explicitly about justice, and hundreds more, which refer to it implicitly. Justice is in fact one(a) of the most frequently recurring to topics in the Bible (20053). What actually marshall means here is that, Biblical justice covers all aspects of life in terms of justice such as the personal and the social, the public and the private, the political and religious, the human and nonhuman.But on the other hand, such remarks may mean that biblical justice does not consist entirely of social justice, but also unconditional justices such as political justice and many others. Marshall said, Justice entails the appropriate distribution of social benefits and penalties and contending sorties(20056). Still more despite such analysis, social justice in biblical justice concept, remain inclusive of other justices because, the product of each justice is a social concern to the need.OLD will CONCEPTS OF JUSTICEMarshall in his book wrote, Often in Hebrew Bible, righteousness (sedeqah) and Justice (mishpat) occur as a word pair with just about identical meaning But let justice roll down like water, and righteousness like an overflowing stream (Amos 524)(200512. So this statement means that righteousness in the Bible incorporates the idea of doing justice and doing justice conveys the idea of putting right what has gone wrong.Soci al justice of the Old Testament indeed was concerned with heavy(p) according to need thought it worked antagonistically to the other it was really social justice and to another a different justice. For example, the obstetrical delivery of Israel by God from slavery in Egypt, it was a justice on social concern to them by God but it was under a covenant. Marshall said, Biblical justice is therefore covenant justice. It is the practical outworking of Israels special relationship with God (200515). We can say, that indeed God did well for the Israelites out of the obedience to the rectitude He gave them through Moses at Mount Sinai. The Law actually reviews what needed for Israel to live in peace, to experience what the God intended for human society, and all was make out of the covenant which was made.In this justice, Israel had seen God intervene in their liberation from the oppression of slavery, to lead her safely through the wilderness and to constitute her as a free independen t people. This became Israels own experience that God was a God of justice, Isaiah 308. Gods justice towards the covenant people was a call the Israelites to act towards one another I the way God had acted towards them, with justice, mercy and equity.It is also recorded in some chapters like in Leviticus 19 15 You shall not redeem an unjust judgement you shall not be partial to the poor or defer to the great with justiceyou shall judge your neighbour. It is aslo written on social justice in the Old Testament that, You shall not deprive a resident alien or an orphan of justice you shall not take the widows garment in pledge. Remenber that you were a slave in Egypt and the Lord your God redeemed you from there therefore I command you to do this, Deuteronomy 2417-18. This has actually pointed to Marshalls description of Gods justice for covenant, through biblical justice which leds to social justice and further with the concerns with giving according to need.Sometime, Biblical justice points at social justice with no concern to giving according to need. Marshall said, justice requires impartiality at other time partiality(200538). In Exodus 233, nor shall you be partial to the poor in a lawsuit. As for Marshall, he poits to this kind of justice in accord to what he called criminal justice. Actually, we can support his point with the biblical justice on social justice in Exodus 2221-24. God warns the Egyptians with His wrath in favour of the resident aliens, widows and orphans.In other instances, Marshall said, Gods bias or invidious option for the por is, ultimately, in the interest of equity. In the perennial struggle for social Justice (200541). This statement from Marshall actually talks about distributive justice that considers fair dealing between men. This is also a biblical justice of Gods bias according to Marshall, can be seen through Gods historic intervention to manner of speaking powerless impoverished Israel fro the hands of the Pharoahs in Egypt, and feed them in wilderness. This is Gods justice which is purely social justice which was give according to the neen of Israel at that particular time.The other Gods justice which is in nature of social justice that is concerned with the giving according need is actually in Deuteronomy 2419-2. This justice provides specific well-being and protection for the por and vulnerable. It is inform of law which guarantees access to food. They are given justice according to the need for survival. This is purely a social justice for social concern in biblical justice.OLD TESTAMENT CONCEPT OF JUSTICE.In the New Testament, biblical justice is not different from that of the Old Testament because the words that are used for justice remain the same, like righteousness but differs only that most of them are teaching by Jesus Christ. Jesus in part of this bible portrays biblical justice consisting social justice by barely giving according to the need. Marshall wrote, At the outset of His ministry, Jesus deliberately evoked this messianic expectation by defining His own mission in terms of bringing justice to the poor (200550). Indeed this is what Jesus had started to do, Isaiah 611. The life-time of the Lord is upon me, because the Lord has anointed me to bring good parvenues to the oppressed, to bind up the broken -hearted, and to proclaim liberty to the captives release to the prisoners. For Jesus to accomplish this he spurned social discrimination, he promoted social justice and gave it according to the need.To the rich man who wanted to know he was to do to enter the kingdom of god, Jesus to him to distribute all that he had and share the money with the poor. This is another biblical justice from our Lord Jesus Christ, as sign for social justice, which he had promoted.To fight social discrimination, Jesus openly criticized the self-righteous arrogance of the religious experts and knowingly antagonized them by enjoying intimate fellowship with sinners and outcasts. Fo r example in Matthew 913 when He said, I desire mercy, not sacrifice. For I have come to call not the righteous but sinners and also in Luke 527-23, a story of how He met Levi the tax collector and how the Pharisees and Scribes complained about it. Therefore, social justice of Jesus who is characterized by giving according to need viewed in Levis story, Jesus also assessed a new community, which was inclusive, and the poor were to be given preferential option.CONCLUSION.Indeed, both Old and New Testament provide Biblical justice which is entirely consist of social justice that is concerned only with the giving according to the need because it is a complex multifaceted reality. It relates to every dimension of human experience. Biblical justice to its social justice seeks to restore dignity to those who have been unjustly deprived of, to meet their basic needs.Jesus proclaimed of the Kingdom of God as a social justice. That is, proper use of wealthy and not excluding the weak and th e vulnerable from participation in national matters.
Tuesday, June 4, 2019
Physical Activity Interventions for Postpartum Depression
Physical Activity Interventions for Postpartum DepressionOne of the most hazardous occasions for women to point depressive symptoms is the period that follows childbirth (Robertson, Celasun Stewart, 2003). t every(prenominal)y to http//www.apa.org (2015) the percentage of women that are likely to experience symptoms of postpartum embossment ranges between 9% and 16%. According to the comparable source (http//www.apa.org, 2015) new mothers diagnosed with postpartum depressive disorder lose the ability to cope with everyday tasks and infant care and are pr wiz to experience stress and melancholia. Robertson,Celasun Stewart,(2003) underline the correlation of the postpartum first symptomatology with symptoms of spartan impression such as lack of energy, low mood and loss of the ability to experience pleasure and report the probable presence of suicidal thoughts.The same researchers also address this complex disorder for new mothers as a severe health issue that affects the imm ediate family of the women and pinpoint the need to provide efficient solutions to the target population.According to the official website NHS.uk(2015) physical performance has been identified as one of the most prevalent excerpts of treatment of mild depression and rise choke offs the contend skills physical activity provides to depressive patients.The website also informs that the psychological therapies such as Cognitive Behavioural Therapy and interpersonal therapy, are the first choice of treatment for moderate postpartum depression to women with no psychiatric history.Robertson, Celasun Stewart,(2003) associate the lack of evidence on successful physical activity interventions as potential alternative treatment for postpartum depression with the undermining of the disease by patients and health professionals, particularly when in that respect is scientific evidence on the positive impact of physical activity on depressive symptomatology(Nice.org.uk, 2009).Currie, Dev elin, (2002) allow in the lack of leisure time due to childcare and financial struggle as potential barriers for mothers with postpartum depression to engage to physical activity programmes. The meta-analyses conducted by Dennis Dowswell(2013) on postnatal depression revealed that, compared to standard treatment ,when women received interventions with psychological or psychosocial context, they were less inclined to develop symptoms of the condition.In their meta- analytic thinking, Daley, Jolly, MacArthur(2009) did non attain evidence to nutriment the replacement of traditional treatment of post-natal depression , with exploit interventions that can deliver results as successful as standard treatment.In a meta analysis (Dally, Jolly, MacArthur,2009)pram walking group intercessions have been reviewed as easily accessible to women that are diagnosed with postnatal depression and are promoted by well-being practitioners as beneficial.The findings also indicate that Intervention fo c utilise on aerobics have successfully reduced the levels of depression for mothers and it might be profitable for future interventions targeting PND to include a commixture of aerobic and mild exercise.The first intervention to be discussed is conducted by Armstrong Edwards(2004), where they designed a 12-week randomised controlled exam for women that have delivered a baby in the sometime(prenominal) year. The aim of the RCT was to investigate the impact of a physical activity intervention group which involved pram-strolling women with their infants contrasted with the control group that provided social support. Kanotra et al(2007) acknowledge social support as one of the basic needs that arise for women postpartum.The meetings of the social support group were non-organized. In the pre-intervention stage of physical wellness, depression levels and social support were evaluated by quantitative measures. The same measures evaluated the effects after the 12th week when the Interve ntion was completed. The aim of the Intervention was for the pram-strolling group to indicate a decrease of the symptoms of postnatal depression while enhancing their wellness levels. The enhancement of the social support levels of both groups and the participants perspectives of the activities were defined as secondary endpoints. The researchers deduced that pram-strolling groups, integrated with psychological treatment and medication, can provide a cost-sound alternative form of coping with postnatal depression and improving their personal lives, especially when traditional treatment fails to provide efficient results.Robertson, Cesalun, Stewart (2013) acknowledge the Edinburgh postpartum Depression Rating Scale (EPDS), a set of 10 question self-rating scale as the most efficient and approximate to medically evaluated measures for depression.The researchers (Armstrong Edwards, 2004) supported that there was a correlation among fitness and depression the improvement of the one had a significant effect on the improvement of the other. The results supported this rationale. The authors also suggested that other factors could yield the amelioration with regards to the depression levels..The findings of the trial showed that in the first group, the symptoms of depression were diminished as well as the physical condition of the mothers was considerably ameliorated. Furthermore, social support was sustained at the same levels for the two groups. Although one of the hypothesis was supported, several weaknesses of the study have been acknowledged by the researchers that can undermine the value of the trial and establish it as not applicable to new mothers with postnatal depression(Armstrong Edwards,2004).As it has not been supported by evidence that the Cornish Walking Wheel, which was the measure used for fitness military rank, can provide an accurate representation of the maximum volume of oxygen consumption (VO2max) (Armstrong Edwards, 2004, pp.6), it is not a reliable measure for fitness evaluation and needs to be examined in future research. Although it is acknowledged that the researchers tried to evaluate the Cornish Walking Wheel in the pilot study they conducted, this evaluation is not sufficient for the fitness measure to be perceived as reliable for fitness evaluation and future research on physical activity interventions of postnatal depression can explore the reasonedity of the measure.Another weakness of the trial as recognised by Armstong Edwards(2004) is the choice of friendly Support Interviews (SSI) in the Social Support Group. Although the questionnaire has been used in previous research (OHara,1995), it was not assessed for this Intervention against other validated measures. The authors recognise that the lack of results on the levels of social support could be attributed to the brief span of the trial and the measurements inability to recognise even mild variation of the social support levels provided to the targete d population. In order for Interventions to be reliable measurement-wise, Armstong Edwards (2004) suggest that the verbal expression of appropriate measures for each exercise group of postnatal women needs to be established.Armstrong Edwards(2004) raise another issue regarding the small example of the trial (19 participants) which does not allow the results of the interventions to be generalized. Some other traits that confine the generalizability of the findings include the demographic homogeneity of the trials participants as well as the correlation of their high educational, socioeconomic background and regional proximity. As a result, the findings of the interventions, although successful to an extent, they are not applicable to different populations. In order to confirm the success of the randomised controlled trial for postnatal depression focused on pram- walking activities, future trials should be designed to target demographic heterogeneity and the recruitment of parti cipants from various ethnical and socioeconomical backgrounds(Armstrong Edwards,2004).The second study of choice is a pilot study conducted in the UK. In their pilot study Gillinsky, Hughes McInnes(2012) executed a randomise controlled trial that consists of two groups with exercise courses and one 10-week body with pram-strolling activities. The pilot study aims to alter the behaviour of exercise and physical wellbeing and research the efficiency of behavioural and motivational intercessions. The application of accelerometers in the MAMMiS trial (Gillinsky, Hughes McInnes,2012) provides validity to the trial by measuring impartially the levels of physical activity of the participants for a week. The fact that the accelerometer is on for all the wakening hours of their daily schedule is one of the criteria to differentiate this study to more traditional ones on postnatal depression, is ithe fact that it provides flexibility to the daily schedules of new mothers by measuring the physical activity around the clock.One of the advantages of the study is the design (RCT),due to the nature of randomised controlled trials providing evidence that the results of an intervention are caused by the treatment option via randomization(Ebbp.org,2015) and the 12-week follow-up after the intervention is completed. One of the limitations of this trial is that it is a pilot study and pilot studies are implemented to locate certain weaknesses and modify them in order to design a larger, successful trial. Pilot studies explore the potential of an intercession and their results should not be taken at face value, especially because the taste sizes of a pilot study are always small(Leon, Davis Kraemer,2011).Furthermore, the efficacy of the study is potentially limited due to the fact that the trial is delivered by only one health-care professional and to a specific population in the Scottish countryside. In order to design successful intercessions of physical activity on PND ba sed on this pilot study, the target population and the researchers involved need to be distinctive(Gillinsky, Hughes McInnes,2012).On an analysis focused on the impact of exercise on depressive symptoms Daley, Jolly McArthur(2009) cogitate that physical activity interventions can be successful only as complementary treatments of postnatal depression, as there was no evidence to indicate successful rates when patients replace standard treatment(medication and psychological support) with exercise. Strhle (2008) in his paper reaches the same conclusion by arguing that although exercise has not been assessed on delivering clinically valid findings and as a result it cannot be applied instead of traditional treatment, whose clinical value is established. However, he acknowledges the helpful reaction exercise has on depression and encourages future researchers to investigate the appropriate duration and regularity of physical activity interventions(Strhle,2008). In addition, Robertson, Celasun Stewart(2003), recognise as unlikely for researchers to develop a single effective treatment option for the whole population of postnatal depression, considering there is a variety of probable factors than can lead to the development of postnatal depression. Nevertheless, they underline the enquire for sufficient evidence that can be used as a manual from professionals in primary and secondary care.(Robertson, Celasun Stewart,2003).Conclusively, it has been reviewed that studies investigating the efficiency of physical activity on postpartum depression (Daley, Jolly McArthur, 2009) lack sufficient follow-up findings and are characterised by small samples. These two factors indicate that postnatal depression interventions targeting exercise have not been sufficiently explored and future researchers should concentrate on developing interventions with larger populations and longer span of follow-up effects.After the literature review conducted by the bailiwick Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence in England (NICE)(Nice.org.uk,2009) that supports the benefits of exercise on patients that indicate mild depressive symptoms, the next steps of the research community should be the formulation of cost-effective interventions of moderate exercise that can contemplate the treatment of women diagnosed with postpartum depression (Daley, Jolly,McArthur, 2009).REFERENCEShttp//www.apa.org,.(2015). Postpartum Depression Fact Sheet. Retrieved 2 exhibit 2015, from http//www.apa.org/pi/women/programs/depression/postpartum.aspxArmstrong, K., Edwards, H. (2004). The effectiveness of a pram-walking exercise programme in reducing depressive symptomatology for postnatal women. International ledger Of Nursing Practice, 10(4), 177-194. doi10.1111/j.1440-172x.2004.00478.xCurrie, J., Develin, E. (2002). STROLL YOUR WAY TO WELL-BEING A SURVEY OF THE PERCEIVED BENEFITS, BARRIERS, COMMUNITY SUPPORT, AND STIGMA ASSOCIATED WITH PRAM WALKING GROUPS DESIGNED FOR NEW MOTHER S, SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA. Health Care For Women International, 23(8), 882-893. doi10.1080/07399330290112380Daley, A., Jolly, K., MacArthur, C. (2009). The effectiveness of exercise in the vigilance of post-natal depression systematic review and meta-analysis. Family Practice, 26(2), 154-162. doi10.1093/fampra/cmn101Dennis CL, Dowswell T. (2013). Psychosocial and psychological interventions for preventing postpartum depression. Cochrane Database of trunkatic Reviews, 2, Art. No. CD001134. DOI 10.1002/14651858.CD001134.pub3Ebbp.org,. (2015). EBBP. Retrieved 3 March 2015, from http//www.ebbp.org/course_outlines/randomized_controlled_trials/(EPDS), E., Depression., P. (2015). Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. Psychology Tools. Retrieved 4 March 2015, from https//psychology-tools.com/epds/Gilinsky, A., Hughes, A., McInnes, R. (2012). More Active Mums in Stirling (MAMMiS) a physical activity intervention for postnatal women. Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial. Trials, 1 3(1), 112. doi10.1186/1745-6215-13-112Kanotra, S., DAngelo, D., Phares, T., Morrow, B., Barfield, W., Lansky, A. (2007). Challenges Faced by New Mothers in the Early Postpartum Period An Analysis of Comment Data from the 2000 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) Survey. Matern Child Health J, 11(6), 549-558. doi10.1007/s10995-007-0206-3Leon, A., Davis, L., Kraemer, H. (2011). The role and interpretation of pilot studies in clinical research. Journal Of Psychiatric Research, 45(5), 626-629. doi10.1016/j.jpsychires.2010.10.008Nhs.uk,. (2015). Postnatal depression NHS Choices. Retrieved 2 March 2015, from http//www.nhs.uk/conditions/postnataldepression/pages/introduction.aspxNice.org.uk,. (2009). Depression in adults The treatment and management of depression in adults treatments-for-mild-to-moderate-depression Information for the public NICE. Retrieved 2 March 2015, from http//www.nice.org.uk/guidance/cg90/ifp/chapter/treatments-for-mild-to-moderate-depressionOhar a, M., Swain, A. (1996). Rates and risk of postpartum depression a meta-analysis. Int Rev Psychiatry, 8(1), 37-54. doi10.3109/09540269609037816Robertson, E., Celasun, N., and Stewart, D.E. (2003). Risk factors for postpartumdepression. In Stewart, D.E., Robertson, E., Dennis, C.-L., Grace, S.L., Wallington, T.(2003). Postpartum depression Literature review of risk factors and interventions.Strhle, A. (2008). Physical activity, exercise, depression and anxiety disorders. Journal Of Neural Transmission, 116(6), 777-784. doi10.1007/s00702-008-0092-x
Monday, June 3, 2019
Adverse effects of flood in Pakistan
Adverse effects of peespout in PakistanExecutive SummaryThe oerindulge of 2010 which unnatural any(prenominal) 20 zillion pack in Pakistan instantaneously and left them home little go been the finish off overgorge that Pakistan and the world has ever seen.The enquiry was conducted on the subject of adverse effects of spring in Pakistan and how it has affected our kitchen-gardening, banks, economy, imports and exports. The investigate was basically exploratory in nature in which we gathered articles from different institutions, political science activitys and youthfulspapers. There is so very much material available on the topic that it became a challenge for us to remain specific and to the point. One to a greater extent line was that due to many sources there were a clash in the facts imagines so we impart taken out the reliable resources in order to make it less confusing.The research concluded that the flood has ca utilize unprecedented devastation to Pakist ans economy, agriculture, infrastructure, imports/exports and above all, to gentleman lives and dignity. Not only 20 jillion direct to be given nutrient and shelter except for the long term the government and the pile have to create jobs so that they evoke stand on their own feet again.Introduction indwelling Disaster is the effect of natural hazards which includes flood, tornado, volcano eruption, earthquake or instituteslide that affects the environment, leads to financial, environmental and/or human losings. It is terrible event that is non caused by human activity and results in deaths, injuries or modify to property. The resulting loss depends on the capacity of the population to support or resist the disaster, and their resilience. This perceptive is con centrated in the reflection disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability .A natural hazard forgeting hence never result in a natural disaster in areas without vulnerability, e.g. potent earthquakes in uninha bited areas. The term natural has therefore been disputed because the events simply are not hazards or disasters without human involvement. Natural disasters which occur due to the sort of plate tectonics are earthquakes, volcanoes, geyser eruptions and tsunami. These different types of natural disasters have taken away millions of lives and have caused trillions of dollars in name of financial losses.The youthful flood in Pakistan was one of the worst natural disasters in Pakistans history and in worlds history. It was one of the biggest disasters that the world have ever experienced not in terms of death but in terms of people affected, area affected and in terms of financial losses that occurred. Almost one- eighth of the population was targetly affected by flood. The floods that recently caused great pervert to Pakistan had more than encroachment than the combine tinge of tsunami in 2004, Haiti earthquake in 2010 and Earthquake of 2005 that affected northerly areas of Pa kistan. The affected people in these combine three disasters were slightly 11 million people but in the recent flood affected around 20 million people crossways Pakistan.Pakistan has experienced floods and the details of those floods are provided below pig out in September 1992 affected 12 million peopleFlood in August 1992 affected 6 million peopleFlood in August 1976 affected 5 million peopleFlood in July 1978 affected 2.2 million peopleFlood in July 1995 affected 1.2 million peopleThe Flood of 2010 which affected around 20 million people in Pakistan directly and left them homeless have been the worst flood that Pakistan and the world have ever seen. Only eight million out of 20 million people were affected in the body politic of Punjab. It has caused billions of dollars losses to Pakistans economy, agriculture, imports etc. fit to World bound and Asian out harvest-home Bank the economic concern of recent flood is imagined as much as 43 billion dollars.TopicAdverse effects of floods in Pakistan.MAPThis map is highlighting the flood affected areas from severe (red) to moderate (orange).CDocuments and SettingsFaizanaliDesktopuntitled.bmpPurpose StatementTo determine the adverse effects of recent floods in Pakistan.Research hesitationsHow the recent has floods affected Pakistan?Sub-Research QuestionHow has the floods affected our agriculture?How has the floods affected the banks?How has the floods affected our economy?How has the floods affected our Imports and Exports?HypothesisThe recent floods have an adverse affect on our economy.LITERATURE REVIEW effectuate on AgricultureAgriculture sphere have been the backbone of the Pakistans economy and Pakistan is k outrightn as agriculture based country. concord to the facts provide by the food for thought and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Agriculture is one of the main sector of Pakistans economy employing more than 42% of the labor force and accounts to 23% of the gross domestic product (Gross Domesti c Product). The recent floods did not only led to human loss but had a king-sized impact on the agriculture sector directly. It destroyed many crops and over an estimated area of 1.38 million acres were affected due to recent flood of 2010.Pakistans major crops are cotton, shuck and rice. Wheat is one of the Important produce of Pakistan has been severely damaged in the flood. tally to the data provided by Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock shows and we iteratePunjab 44,896 tonnesKhyber Pukhtunkhwa 80,823 tonnesSindh 5,41,696 tonnesBalochistan 321, 651 tonnesThe above facts stated by the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock shows that total of 0.6 million tones of wheat has been damaged throughout the county and major places that were affected were parts of Sindh and Balochistan but the government is taking out corroboratives from these flood that is they think that these flood would lead to more fertile land and that would lead to bumper crop in coming twelvemo nth in the flood- affected regions.According to analysis done by Dr. Abdul Rashid, Member observe and Evaluation, Punjab Agriculture Board, he told Dawn.com and we quote This fertile layer will result in good yields in the coming days.According to antecedent Federal pastor for Food Agriculture and Livestock Khair Muhammad Junejo, he said and we quote Flood overall effect for land will be beneficial.Dr Abdul Rashid further said and we quote The floods will recharge the water in the soil and underground water resources will increase.According to an some early(a) expert Dr Shamsuddin Tunjo, professor at the faculty of roll Production at the Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam is of the opnion and we quote Plain lands may benefit in the terms of fertility the floods erode away rich layers of soil and if water stands for a long time in the land, the next seasons crop may not be grown.CDocuments and SettingsFaizanaliDesktopp09_24420661.jpgThis picture surely tells us what has h appened to our agriculture land.According to the Facts Stated by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) which works under the United Nation OrganizationIt is almost impossible to measure the gravity of losses to the agriculture sector as they are enormous and further unfolding.Almost 80% people in the flood affected areas rely on agriculture for their livelihood and they see it as their main source of incomeOne of the toughest task that the farmers will have to font is to recover their land in time when the new season begins in September/ October.Overall throughout the country millions of people have lost their entire nitty-gritty to sustain themselves in the immediate and extended term, all this is due to the destruction/ damage of standing crops and means of agriculture production.According to FAO although they have completed in half of all flood affected districts shows that 1.3 million hectares of standing crops have been damaged.According to their statistics 0.5-0.6 millio n tones of wheat stock have been affected.According to their Livestock Department recent flood caused death of 1.2 large and small animals, and 6 million poultry.With the prizement still taking place, the losses are going to affect millions directly and indirectly and will have the direct impact on the countrys GDP as these crops would have to be imported to meet the countrys demand for wheat and rice.Response to needs in the agriculture sector cannot be ignored nor delayed.According to their estimates standing crops on over 10,000 hectares have been washed away and nearly 8000 livestock have been destroyed in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province alone.The worst affected districts are Swat, Nowshera, Charsadda, Shangla and Kohistan. Nowshera and Charsadda are the most fertile areas in the country producing variety of crops.Wheat is the main staple in Pakistan, fulfilling almost 35% of the average per capita calorie requirement in 2008. This year in Pakistan a record harvest took place for w heat around 23.4 million tones prior to flood, the flood water result in serious losses of wheat stocks that were held at household level. The loss of wheat can have a negative impact on the planting of next season which will begin in October/November because the flood have caused loss of seeds, fertilizers, livestock and savings.According to their estimates 1.2 million livestock and 6 million poultry have perished. One of the main reason that this figure is so high is because when people were rescued during the recent flood people did not take their animals with them and opted to save their life. The major challenge faced by different agencies working in Pakistan during this flood was to provide food to animals who survived as the supply was actually limited and they face difficult task of transporting this food supply as majority of infrastructure was as well destroyed. The United Nation has appealed for emergency assistant of $ 5.7 million for livestock.A closer look has been d one by CASSIM Investments (PVT) LTD (18 Aug 2010)They have identified major crops that have been affected due to recent flood in Pakistan and they have given details of damages incurred by different crops.Cotton It has been worst hit crop, as according to initial estimates we have lost as much as 2 million bales. This will direct impact on our textile industry and will lead to import of cotton. This will put press on our current account dearth and lead to deprecation of our currency.Wheat According to them , they estimate they due to recent flood that have damaged wheat badly will lead to wheat shortage which is main staple in Pakistan.Rice Pakistan is one of the main rice exporter in the world and they estimate that Pakistan might not be able to meet its target of rice exports this year as they expect losses in crop as well. This will result in loss of foreign exchange and widening of current account shortageSugar They have estimated a loss of 500,000 tonnes of sugar cane, nigh 2-3% of the sugar cane demand. They believe it will have minimum impact on the availability of refined sugar.Effect on EconomyThe congressional research report that was present to the congress member on recent flood in Pakistan stated the economic effects of floods. According to them it is too early to assess the damage caused by flood and it can only be assessed once the water goes away to examine the extent of damage caused to crops, housing, roads and bridges, electrical storage-battery grid and other critical elements to its economic recovery. According to the preliminary assessment done by the Asian Development Bank and FAO shows that around 14% of cultivated land has been affected by floods, that resulted in loss of 25% of the cotton crop and some other crops, Pakistan has also lost 1% of its livestock and there is riskiness of this percentage rising due to feed shortages and lack of veterinary care by and by the flood waters recede.The broader effect of flood can also be felt with price of domestic items soaring and creating high inflation. In addition to this government spending on relief activities is going to widen the financial deficit.According to United Nation Organization it estimates that the recent flood will increase Pakistans fiscal deficit expenditures by $4 billion in fiscal year 2010/11. A preliminary evaluation reported submitted to the Pakistans ministry of finance has estimated that there will be zero percent GDP growth and 25% inflation this year. The figure shows that Pakistan is going to face tough challenges ahead in year 2010/11 because the targets unsex by the IMF (International monetary fund) varied with these figures. IMF set a target of 4.5% GDP growth and with 9% inflation. The long-term economic effects are not easy to assess. According to one source, repairing damaged infrastructure that includes roads, bridges and dames would cost Pakistan humongous $15 billion. There are 44 critical factors that will hamper the spee d of Pakistans economic progress over the next few years. Now Pakistan which is already face tough challenges since 2008 has the lowest TAX-GDP ratio in the world with figures accounting to 8-9 %. The World Bank and the Asian Development have agreed to give loans $ 1 billion and $2 billion respectively but they have also attached conditions to these loans. The IMF which have provided loan of $ 10-11 billion have asked Pakistan to re horizon its monetary polity and fiscal policy. They have set targets for Pakistan and prior to these floods Pakistan have failed to achieve some of the targets set by the International Monetary fund. The IMF set condition of lowering fiscal deficit to 5.1 % during this year while Pakistan chokeed this limit and had a fiscal deficit of 6.2 % of the GDP, now that flood have occurred it looks impossible that Pakistan would be able to meet the targets set by IMF. Pakistan have to pay back the loan to IMF by 2012/13 and it would cost the country $3 billion per year. Pakistan external debt has already amounted to $55.5 billion which is 56% of the GDP. These figures are a prove that Pakistan which is already unable to meet the requirements set by the international donors will find it impossible to meet the target after the recent flood that have moved Pakistan decades back.According to CASSIM INVESTMENTS (PVT) LTDThey have stated that since the entire infrastructure have been badly destroyed specially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and some areas of Punjab. All this will have to build to revive economic activity and thus this has forced the government to cut down is Public Sector Development Program by almost 50 % this means that all the development projects which were taking place in order to improve the economy have now been stopped and the funds have been shifted towards the flood affected areas.They have also stated that the imports of goods for relief purpose will widen the current account deficit. opposed Aid will help the country in the short term, but will constrict the amount of PSDP available with the financial cost burden in the future. A current account shortage will cause devaluation of the currency, which is favorable for sectors for exports but if we see in our country it will have negative impact because depreciation would result in high inflation damaging Pakistans fiscal policy and monetary policy.According to an article in Daily Times on August 29 2010 it states that and we quote disposal of Pakistan will revise its economic growth targets and major budget projections in consultation with International Monetary shop (IMF), official sources informed here on Saturday.Damage caused to the backbone of the economy the agriculture sector of is provisionally estimated at Rs 244.6 billion and losses due to the damage to the infrastructure and private and public properties are estimated to be around Rs 600 billion in all four provinces, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan.Consultation on revision in mac ro-economic targets is to be taken during the ongoing fifth review of Pakistans economy with IMF authorities at Washington. frugal growth targets and major budget projections for the 2010-13 were approved under the Medium full term Budgetary Framework for the next three years, however, the floods have changed the entire scene on the economic landscape of the country that requires major revision.Devastation caused by the floods across the country has gravely damaged the main sectors of economy especially the agriculture sector and Pakistans development priorities have changed and a major portion of resources are organism planned to divert towards rehabilitation of flood affecters. Recent floods across the country have caused devastations worth Rs 244.6 billion in the agriculture sector with maximum damage suffered by the small farmers who have faced a loss of around Rs 98 billion, some facing total annihilation of their crops.While on the other hand, Finance Ministry has convened an important meeting, to review key macroeconomic indicators of the country following devastation of floods.Sources said that meeting of the Medium Term Budgetary Framework (MTBF) organism held at Ministry of Finance would review the rolling targets of key macroeconomic indicators for the next three years, which were unveiled in the budget. They recent floods have changed the economic priorities of the country and budgetary targets have become totally irrelevant on the face of massive displacement caused by worst ever floods in the history of the country. This information is anticipate to be shared with IMF during talks currently underway in Washington that would continue till September 2.Growth target of 4.5 percent for 2010-11 was to reach 5 percent in 2011-12 and 5.5 percent for 2012- 2013 under the MTBF. Sources said that growth target for the current fiscal year as well as for the next devil years would have to be revised because of the devastating floods whose impact on econ omy would remain for the next few years. Inflation was targeted to be brought down to 9.5 per cent in the ongoing fiscal year and 8 and 7 percent for 2011-12 and 2012-13 respectively. These targets have become irrelevant and would be readjusted in view of the present military position the same is the case with revenue assemblage targets. The governments revenue collection targets of 15.2 percent of the GDP for the ongoing fiscal year and 15.5 and 15.9 percent for the next two years respectively are unlikely to be met.http//msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Slideshows/_production/ss-100730-Pakistan-floods/ss-100819-Pakistan-floods-03.ss_full.jpgOne of the many industries drowned in the flood.Dr. Amjad Waheed, CFA, Chief Executive Officer of NBP Fullerton Asset Management Limited(Formerly content Fullerton Asset Management Limited) has written an in depth article on the countrys economic condition and has projected the future trends in our economy.Highlights are given below. th oroughgoing Losses estimated at 5.8% of GDP. Around 15% of the Pakistani population has been affected by the floods. According to some initial estimates agricultural losses may exceed Rs 250 billion whereas infrastructure losses may exceed Rs 600 billion. Thus total estimated losses of around US$10 billion will equal 5.8%of Pakistans GDP.Economic Growth rate expected to be subdued. We expect agriculture sector to show a negative growth, and industry and services sector to grow by about 3%. We project bodily earnings to rise by 14% over the next four quarters, down from our previous estimates of 18%growth. financial Deficit is expected to balloon to 7.5% of GDP in FY11. The slowdown in economy as a result of the floods will make tax collection target of Rs 1.7 trillion extremely difficult to achieve. On the other hand, government expenditures are expected to rise substantially to re-build the infrastructure in the floods-affected areas and rehabilitate the realized families. Domes tic Government borrowing in the form of treasury Bills and National Savings Schemes is also expected to rise substantially. In the months of July and August 2010, the Government Treasury Bills stock has already risen by about Rs 137 billion. This will also continue to crowd out the private sector. As a result, the budget deficit is estimated to cross 7.5% of GDP in FY11.Inflation and Interest Rates are expected to rise further. The imposition of value added tax from October, damage to crops from floods, projected rise in utility prices and expected additional taxes to support people affected with floods may result in inflation rising to around 15% in FY11.Stock Market performance expected to remain lackluster in FY11. Floods are expected to have a negative impact on the banking industry, cable car industry and oil marketing companies, at least in the short run. In the remaining period of FY11 the stock market may not be able to show a double digit growth from the current levels. T he Margin Trading System, even if implemented, is not going to make a authoritative difference to the performance of the Pakistani stock market, in my opinion, as the economic and political fundamentals will take time to improve.Trade and Current draw Deficit are expected to Rise. Pakistans exports will suffer due to damage to the key crops and textile sector resulting from floods, as well as power deficit and high inflation. Pakistans imports, on the other hand, are expected to show an increase due to import of around 2-3 million bales of cotton and food products.Investors are advise to remain conservative and prefer money market funds relative to equity funds for the time being.Effect on BanksThe Moodys investor services changed the long-term local currency deposit ratings and bank financial strength ratings of the big-5 banks from stable to negative, said Muniba Saeed, an analyst at Invest Capital, here Saturday. The change in the outlook of the banks was drive mainly by th e impact of flood giving rise to economic challenges.The food shortage and rising input prices will further hinder the corporate sectors recovery due to the slowdown in the economic growth and inflationary pressures.The rating agency expects that higher input prices would lead to a loss of engagement in certain export-oriented sectors, especially textiles.According to data from the State Bank of Pakistan, the banking sector exposure to textiles as of June stood at eight per cent of the total exposure, however, the banking sector exposure to cumulative textiles and the crop growing category of agriculture stood at 11 per cent of the total, or Rs635 billion.As textiles being the highest borrower in the manufacturing sector, much(prenominal) dependence are likely to dent the sectors profitability, owing to increased provisioning requirement and resultant increased probability of the non-performing loans.The banks non-performing loans (NPLs) have grown to an alarming level of Rs456 bi llion by March this year on the back of a sliding economy, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The increasing NPLs are squeezing the profits of the banks, as they are required under the prudential regulations to make provisions against their bad debt.National Bank of Pakistan, the lender with the highest delinquency ratio, faces an increase in loan failures after the worst flooding in the countrys history damaged farmland in areas where the bank lends.Syed Ali Raza, the banks president, said in an interview in Karachi, There will certainly be some impact on non-performing loans. The impact will be containable but it will be there. He continued, While there were immediate losses from floods mostly in the agriculture sector, there is a substantiating side to the disaster as it has refreshed farmland across the country. The yield from those farms is likely to improve with better, more fertile soil and availability of water in the next season.Abdul Shakur, a research analys t at BMA Capital Management Ltd. in Karachi said With around 25 percent of its total lending to agriculture related business, it will be a real challenge for National Bank to register growth in profit, He estimates a 22 percent decline in National Banks profit in 2010.Muhammad Imran, head of research at Arif Habib Investment Ltd. in Karachi said The flood losses and the discount rate rise may limit the ability of borrowers to return loans. Banks may be asked to reschedule and ease terms.The underlying bank said in an e-mailed statement Given the likely impact of the recent floods, ongoing challenging economic environment, power shortages and security situation in the country, the increased portfolio of non- performing loans and heightened credit risk remain the major challenge for the banking system.Effects on the Imports/ExportsThe recent floods in Pakistan have badly affected the Pakistans economy. The floods as caused a widespread destruction badly affecting the infrastructure, the farmlands and many industries.The floods have caused destruction to cotton, wheat and rice crops extensively thereby affecting the exports of finished products such as textile, and also raw material such as rice and cotton bales.According to the USDA Report, Due to the devastating floods, Post revises its 2010/11 rice production estimates for Pakistan to 4.4 MMT, a decrease of 32%. Pakistani rice exports for 2010/11 are similarly reduced to an estimated 2.3 MMT, a decline of 36%. Rice is Pakistans minute largest export product and the reduction in rice exports is expected to have implications for its balance of payments.However the figures given for cotton are bleaker, as before Pakistan used to export cotton but now this year Pakistan is forced to import cotton from India and other countries to meet its own local demand and also in order to fulfill the export orders.According to Fibre to Fashion (a leading textile news website), More than one million bales of cotton crops have been destroyed, and the Government is not in the capacity to achieve its target of 14 million bales of annual production. Due to this, Pakistan, being Asias fourth largest producer of cotton is likely to angle of dip back by 10-15% of its cotton production.Incessant downpour has damaged the fields in Piplan Layyah, Mianwali, and Mithankot. Regions in the Central Punjab such as Rajanpur, Lyia, Rahimyar Khan, and DG Khan were seriously affected losing thousands of bales of cotton crop. Areas of Ghotki, Daherki, Sukkar, and Naushehro Feroz, Bhakkar, Jhang, Shorkot, and Mianwali were also affected by floods.This devastation has badly affected the Pakistani industry as well, and the destruction would also create difficulties as the raw material would not be available however there are some positive feelings that the cotton would be imported with already huge shipments in line and that would help in meeting the international export orders. Also Pakistan has been able to achieve concessi ons from EU for exporting its produce with lesser duties thereby giving a lifeline to the industrial sector.MethodologyOur research is totally based on collection of data through articles, interviews and reports. We have found articles and reports on internet that have been previously written on this topic. We have collected facts and figures from websites of NGOs, Social welfares and government. We have conducted interviews with the NGOs and the welfare organizations to try to get the answers of our research questions. One of our company member also went to the affected places to try to know the ground situation. We have divided our research question into four categories and found their answers individually as well. We have gathered around 40 articles and from that we have shortlisted 17 articles.AnalysisIf we take into account the data above we can just analyze that Pakistans economy and other sectors have been adversely affected by the recent flood. It is not a vague statements but we have will proved it with facts and figures that although the recent flood have some positive impact as well but the negative effects over weigh the positive effect of recent flood of 2010.According to the statements given by Ali Raza the president of National bank of Pakistan says and we quoteThere will certainly be some impact on non-performing loans. The impact will be containable but it will be there. He continued, While there were immediate losses from floods largely in the agriculture sector, there is a positive side to the disaster as it has refreshed farmland across the country. The yield from those farms is likely to improve with better, more fertile soil and availability of water in the next season.He is of the view that yes banks will be facing tough time in coming future but the agriculture sector can take out some positives from this flood that is more fertile land means bumper crop. The availability of water and more fertile soil will benefit the farmers in the l ong run, at the same time he was of the view that banks will start having a impact of the flood next year means start of 2011 when people would be unable to pay their loans and percentage % of non- performing loans will increase. So this shows that one sector of the economy will have to face tough time in near future while the other sector can take out some positives from the recent flood.According to former Federal Minister for Food Agriculture and Livestock Khair Muhammad Junejo, he said and we quote Flood overall effect for land will be beneficial.This also shows that the former minister is of the view that yes indeed flood have caused damages to farmland in this year but it will have a positive impact in the next year with more fertile land and with availability of water.Abdul Shakur, a research analyst at BMA Capital Management Ltd. in Karachi said With around 25 percent of its total lending to agriculture related business, it will be a real challenge for National Bank to regis ter growth in profit, He estimates a 22 percent decline in National Banks profit in 2010This statement shows that Abdul Shakur who is one of the experts is of the view that this flood will not only harm agriculture sector but the banking sector as well because banking sector relies heavily on the agriculture sector with quarter of its loans are being given to agriculture sector.When the National Bank of Pakistan will be facing tough time showing profit this means all the other banks will have a much larger impact if the agriculture fails to pay back their loans.The United Nation organization estimates that the recent flood will increase Pakistans fiscal deficit by 4$ billion that means with the current exchange rate Pakistan fiscal deficit will increase by 350 billion rupees. Pakistan who is already face challenges because of their war on terror and does not look good economy wise. Their targets set by IMF were 5.1 % of the GDP for fiscal deficit but they exceeded these targets by m ore than one percent and achieved 6.2% prior to these flood. This flood will not make things better for Pakistan but worseAccording to the Prime Minister of Pakistan Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani the government have decided to cut their PSDP (Public Sector Development Projects) by 50 % this means that from 650 billion government will only utilize around 325 billion and the rest of the funds wil
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